A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
